Methodology

Data sources & pipeline

On-chain transfers come from public blockchain indexers (Etherscan V2 with Blockscout fallback for EVM chains; Helius for Solana). Historical daily prices come from CoinGecko. The ingestion pipeline runs every 2 hours per tracked wallet: transfers → daily-price valuation → FIFO position cycles → metrics → score → whale event detection → alert evaluation. Tokens without reliable price coverage are stored but excluded from PnL — we never value a position by guesswork.

Smart Money score (0–100)

Seven factors, each scored 0–100 from observed history, combined by fixed weights:

The score describes past behavior only. It never claims or predicts future performance.

Confidence & shrinkage

Confidence = closed positions ÷ 30, capped at 100%. The final score is pulled toward a neutral 50 in proportion: score = 50 + (weighted − 50) × confidence. A lucky 3-trade wallet cannot outrank a 100-trade track record. Everywhere a score appears, its confidence band appears with it:

• High confidence — 18+ closed positions (≥60%).
• Estimated — 6–17 closed positions (20–59%).
• Insufficient data — fewer than 6 closed positions: the score is mostly neutral filler, not evidence.

The custody rule

Exchange and contract wallets move aggregated customer funds. Their deposits and withdrawals are not trades, so we never rank them as traders, never show them a win rate or ROI, and exclude their holdings from token concentration risk (customer funds ≠ investment ownership). They are monitored separately as exchange-flow intelligence.

Whale event detection

Events are automated observations of past transfers crossing fixed USD thresholds — configurable per chain and per token. Accumulation and distribution are net flows over a trailing 7-day window. Transfers without price coverage never produce events.

A one-sided transfer is never labelled a "buy" or "sell" — transfer-level data cannot distinguish a purchase from an internal move. We DO emit Buy and Sellevents only when a single transaction hash carries both legs of a swap (a token out and a different token in): the transfer pattern itself is the evidence, no router calldata needed. These are labelled "observed swap" and require the swap to clear the whale-scale value bar ($50K+) — small rotations are not shown. Every such event links to its transaction on the block explorer.

Token structure scores

Holder risk, liquidity, and overall health are computed from public holder data and market data. Exchange custody wallets are excluded from concentration and reported separately. When an input is missing, the component is marked unavailable and excluded from the average — a token with thin data shows "insufficient data", never a fabricated bad (or good) score. Every score lists the factors that created it, on the page where it appears.

AI research reports

Reports are generated from our own ingested data — curated, truncated context, with missing data stated as missing. Two guardrails apply: a system prompt that forbids recommendations, predictions and profit claims, and an automated post-generation validator that rejects any output containing prohibited wording before it is stored. A report that fails validation twice is discarded, not published.

Known limitations

• Coverage is curated, not exhaustive: we track a growing set of verified wallets, not every address on-chain.
• Data freshness is bounded by the ingestion cycle (every 2 hours per wallet) and provider rate limits.
• Realized metrics depend on price coverage; thin or new tokens may be excluded from PnL.
• Wallet labels come from public information and are best-effort; entity attribution can be wrong.
• Historical behavior, however well measured, does not predict future results.