What Changed — Crypto Conviction Change Journal

UNKNOWN (J6pQ…)

UNKNOWN (J6pQ…) · SOLANA

54→29/100

−25 ptsBULLISH → BEARISH

Market −24.5 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

On-chain activity −25 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 1 in the last 7 days vs 5 the week before.
Macro conditions +0.4 pts — Global (not token-specific): 28 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.62 on the lexicon.
Liquidity +0.2 pts — 24h volume was $3,056,949 against a $200,767,977 market cap (1.52% turnover).

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

DAI

DAI · ETHEREUM

63→41/100

−22 ptsBULLISH → BEARISH

Market −22.3 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

On-chain activity −21.4 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 22 in the last 7 days vs 127 the week before.
Technical indicators −3.7 pts — Price moved -0.0% over 7 days and 0.0% over 30 days, sitting at 36% of its 30-day range.
Liquidity +3 pts — 24h volume was $252,499,586 against a $4,599,491,263 market cap (5.49% turnover).

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

APR

APR · ETHEREUM

54→38/100

−16 ptsBULLISH → BEARISH

Market −15.8 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

On-chain activity −16 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 63 in the last 7 days vs 89 the week before.
Technical indicators +1.1 pts — Price moved -7.2% over 7 days and 1.5% over 30 days, sitting at 12% of its 30-day range.
Liquidity −0.8 pts — 24h volume was $2,351,990 against a $47,671,995 market cap (4.93% turnover).

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

RE · ETHEREUM

58→44/100

−14 ptsBULLISH → BEARISH

Market −13.9 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

On-chain activity −9.4 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 167 in the last 7 days vs 288 the week before.
Technical indicators −4.2 pts — Price moved 23.8% over 7 days and -33.0% over 30 days, sitting at 22% of its 30-day range.
Macro conditions −0.2 pts — Global (not token-specific): 25 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.61 on the lexicon.

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

ZAMA

ZAMA · ETHEREUM

60→50/100

−10 ptsBULLISH → NEUTRAL

Market −10.2 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

On-chain activity −10.7 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 205 in the last 7 days vs 289 the week before.
Macro conditions +0.6 pts — Global (not token-specific): 24 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.59 on the lexicon.

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

RLUSD

RLUSD · ETHEREUM

60→51/100

−9 ptsBULLISH → NEUTRAL

Market −9 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

On-chain activity −11.1 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 3 in the last 7 days vs 44 the week before.
Liquidity +1.6 pts — 24h volume was $135,648,671 against a $1,594,717,721 market cap (8.51% turnover).
Macro conditions +0.5 pts — Global (not token-specific): 28 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.62 on the lexicon.

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

Confidence HIGH → LOW (data coverage 63% → 63%).

wstETH

wstETH · ETHEREUM

56→52/100

−4 ptsBULLISH → NEUTRAL

Market −3.8 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

Whale activity −2.3 pts — Across 764 whale events (9 wallets), observed buy pressure was $463.5M vs $124.3M sell - net accumulation.
Technical indicators −0.9 pts — Price moved 0.1% over 7 days and 22.6% over 30 days, sitting at 93% of its 30-day range.
On-chain activity −0.8 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 617 in the last 7 days vs 721 the week before.

Observed in the last 24 hours: 24 whale events across 3 wallets — buy-side $76.9M against sell-side $90.6M, net −$13.7M · largest: Net inflow of $46.2M in wstETH over the last 7 days (accumulation pattern observed).

YIELD

YIELD · ETHEREUM

67→54/100

−13 pts

Market −12.4 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

On-chain activity −13.1 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 615 in the last 7 days vs 1251 the week before.
Macro conditions +0.8 pts — Global (not token-specific): 28 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.62 on the lexicon.

Observed in the last 24 hours: 2 whale events across 1 wallet — buy-side $55.4M against sell-side $0, net $55.4M · largest: Swapped 15.1K WETH → 0.827 YIELD (~$28.5M)

DEXE

DEXE · ETHEREUM

37→25/100

−12 pts

Market −11.4 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

On-chain activity −11.8 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 318 in the last 7 days vs 1042 the week before.
Macro conditions +0.2 pts — Global (not token-specific): 28 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.62 on the lexicon.
Whale activity +0.1 pts — Across 31 whale events (4 wallets), observed buy pressure was $56.8M vs $168.1M sell - net distribution.

Observed in the last 24 hours: 3 whale events across 1 wallet — buy-side $1.2M against sell-side $2.2M, net −$1.1M · largest: Net outflow of $1.6M in DEXE over the last 7 days (distribution pattern observed).

MOVE

MOVE · ETHEREUM

42→30/100

−12 pts

Market −4.7 ptsOur data coverage −7.7 pts

Coverage-driven: most of this move came from a component becoming available or going dark — not from new market activity.

On-chain activity −10.7 ptsnewly measurable — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 1 in the last 7 days vs 4 the week before.
Liquidity −2.3 pts — 24h volume was $10,505,375 against a $35,257,547 market cap (29.80% turnover).
Technical indicators −1.9 pts — Price moved -17.0% over 7 days and -20.5% over 30 days, sitting at 0% of its 30-day range.

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

PUMP

Pump.fun · SOLANA

78→70/100

−8 pts

Market −7.8 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

On-chain activity −7.4 pts — Observed transactions rose week-over-week: 35 in the last 7 days vs 33 the week before.
Liquidity −0.6 pts — 24h volume was $89,839,884 against a $773,840,161 market cap (11.61% turnover).
Macro conditions +0.1 pts — Global (not token-specific): 27 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.61 on the lexicon.

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

USDC

USDC · ETHEREUM

27→34/100

+7 pts

Market −3.5 ptsOur data coverage +9.6 pts

Coverage-driven: most of this move came from a component becoming available or going dark — not from new market activity.

Liquidity +4.1 ptsnewly measurable — 24h volume was $8,248,609,115 against a $72,510,494,798 market cap (11.38% turnover).
Whale activity +2.9 pts — Across 633 whale events (20 wallets), observed buy pressure was $22.2M vs $816.4M sell - net distribution.
Technical indicators −1.5 pts — Price moved -0.0% over 7 days and -0.0% over 30 days, sitting at 45% of its 30-day range.

Observed in the last 24 hours: 19 whale events across 7 wallets — buy-side $0 against sell-side $1.4M, net −$1.4M · largest: Wallet sent $90.6M in USDC.

USDT

USDT · ETHEREUM

38→45/100

+7 pts

Market −0.3 ptsOur data coverage +7.4 pts

Coverage-driven: most of this move came from a component becoming available or going dark — not from new market activity.

Liquidity +4.6 ptsnewly measurable — 24h volume was $40,785,583,691 against a $183,789,045,963 market cap (22.19% turnover).
On-chain activity +1.6 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 10915 in the last 7 days vs 48441 the week before.
Token fundamentals +0.5 ptsnewly measurable — Top 10 non-exchange holders held 30.0% of supply (−30 points).

Observed in the last 24 hours: 25 whale events across 11 wallets — buy-side $2.0M against sell-side $13.5M, net −$11.4M · largest: Wallet sent $33.0M in USDT.

ALT

ALT · ETHEREUM

39→32/100

−7 pts

Market −7.2 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

Technical indicators −4.1 pts — Price moved -8.7% over 7 days and 2.1% over 30 days, sitting at 14% of its 30-day range.
On-chain activity −2.5 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 8 in the last 7 days vs 39 the week before.
Liquidity −0.3 pts — 24h volume was $1,779,285 against a $40,249,176 market cap (4.42% turnover).

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

ZRO

ZRO · ETHEREUM

53→47/100

−6 pts

Market −7 ptsOur data coverage +1.2 pts

Technical indicators −7.2 pts — Price moved 8.3% over 7 days and 9.5% over 30 days, sitting at 32% of its 30-day range.
On-chain activity +3.5 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 10 in the last 7 days vs 72 the week before.
Liquidity −2.9 pts — 24h volume was $33,030,241 against a $280,631,571 market cap (11.77% turnover).

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

Confidence LOW → MEDIUM (data coverage 43% → 63%).

USDD

USDD · ETHEREUM

56→61/100

+5 pts

Market +5.2 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

On-chain activity +4.2 pts — Observed transactions rose week-over-week: 21 in the last 7 days vs 8 the week before.
Whale activity +1.3 pts — Across 45 whale events (5 wallets), observed buy pressure was $25.8M vs $12.0M sell - net accumulation.
Liquidity −0.2 pts — 24h volume was $105,594,235 against a $1,567,551,922 market cap (6.74% turnover).

Observed in the last 24 hours: 1 whale event across 1 wallet — buy-side $1.0M against sell-side $0, net $1.0M · largest: Net inflow of $1.0M in USDD over the last 7 days (accumulation pattern observed).

Confidence HIGH → MEDIUM (data coverage 63% → 63%).

ACX

ACX · ETHEREUM

48→52/100

+4 pts

Market +3.7 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

On-chain activity +2.6 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 8 in the last 7 days vs 10 the week before.
Liquidity +0.8 pts — 24h volume was $2,378,056 against a $28,854,845 market cap (8.24% turnover).
Macro conditions +0.3 pts — Global (not token-specific): 26 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.59 on the lexicon.

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

USDe

USDe · ETHEREUM

51→47/100

−4 pts

Market −3.4 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

On-chain activity −5.7 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 19 in the last 7 days vs 68 the week before.
Liquidity +2.2 pts — 24h volume was $36,192,954 against a $3,916,990,232 market cap (0.92% turnover).
Macro conditions +0.2 pts — Global (not token-specific): 22 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.62 on the lexicon.

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

Confidence HIGH → MEDIUM (data coverage 63% → 63%).

aEthwstETH

aEthwstETH · ETHEREUM

67→64/100

−3 pts

Market −2.9 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

Whale activity −1.5 pts — Across 143 whale events (6 wallets), observed buy pressure was $264.1M vs $41.5M sell - net accumulation.
Technical indicators −1.2 pts — Price moved -0.4% over 7 days and 22.3% over 30 days, sitting at 91% of its 30-day range.
On-chain activity −0.8 pts — Observed transactions rose week-over-week: 50 in the last 7 days vs 49 the week before.

Observed in the last 24 hours: 6 whale events across 1 wallet — buy-side $17.0M against sell-side $14.7M, net $2.3M · largest: Net inflow of $17.0M in aEthwstETH over the last 7 days (accumulation pattern observed).

weETH

weETH · ETHEREUM

59→56/100

−3 pts

Market −3.4 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

Technical indicators −2 pts — Price moved -1.0% over 7 days and 19.7% over 30 days, sitting at 79% of its 30-day range.
On-chain activity −1.8 pts — Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 470 in the last 7 days vs 503 the week before.
Macro conditions +0.2 pts — Global (not token-specific): 27 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.61 on the lexicon.

Observed in the last 24 hours: 2 whale events across 2 wallets — buy-side $174.2M against sell-side $93K, net $174.2M · largest: Net inflow of $174.2M in weETH over the last 7 days (accumulation pattern observed).

OPN

OPN · ETHEREUM

50→47/100

−3 pts

Market −3 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

Technical indicators −2.8 pts — Price moved -3.6% over 7 days and 1.8% over 30 days, sitting at 16% of its 30-day range.
Macro conditions −0.2 pts — Global (not token-specific): 24 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.59 on the lexicon.

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

Magic Eden · SOLANA

71→68/100

−3 pts

Market −2.7 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

Liquidity −2.8 pts — 24h volume was $2,551,363 against a $37,427,119 market cap (6.82% turnover).
Macro conditions +0.1 pts — Global (not token-specific): 24 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.59 on the lexicon.

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

EUL

EUL · ETHEREUM

72→70/100

−2 pts

Market −2 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

Technical indicators −2.5 pts — Price moved 51.4% over 7 days and 57.2% over 30 days, sitting at 43% of its 30-day range.
Macro conditions +0.5 pts — Global (not token-specific): 28 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.62 on the lexicon.

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

FTX Token

FTX Token · ETHEREUM

42→41/100

−1 pts

Market −1.7 ptsOur data coverage 0 pts

Technical indicators −2.4 pts — Price moved -2.0% over 7 days and -12.6% over 30 days, sitting at 5% of its 30-day range.
Macro conditions +0.7 pts — Global (not token-specific): 28 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.62 on the lexicon.

No whale events recorded for this token in the last 24 hours.

Confidence LOW → MEDIUM (data coverage 56% → 56%).

WETH

WETH · ETHEREUM

39→40/100

+1 pts

Market −5.5 ptsOur data coverage +6.5 pts

Coverage-driven: most of this move came from a component becoming available or going dark — not from new market activity.

Liquidity +3.9 ptsnewly measurable — 24h volume was $344,913,967 against a $4,279,301,564 market cap (8.06% turnover).
Technical indicators −3.3 pts — Price moved -0.6% over 7 days and 20.3% over 30 days, sitting at 84% of its 30-day range.
Token fundamentals −0.9 ptsnewly measurable — Top 10 non-exchange holders held 60.1% of supply (−60 points).

Observed in the last 24 hours: 63 whale events across 10 wallets — buy-side $1.6M against sell-side $129.7M, net −$128.2M · largest: Wallet received $300.5M in WETH across 11 similar transfers (~$27.3M each).

Confidence MEDIUM → HIGH (data coverage 50% → 63%).

Attribution arithmetic: the conviction engine scores an asset as 50 + 45 × Σ(weight × signal), so a component's share of a move is 45 × its change in contribution. Each share is split between the measurement changing and the weighting changing after a coverage event. See the methodology.