USDC

USDC · ETHEREUM

0xa0b86991c6218b36c1d19d4a2e9eb0ce3606eb48

84/100

Structure health · explainable below

The information on this page is market data and educational analysis, not financial advice. Past on-chain activity does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

Price (USD)

$0.999781

Market cap

$72,510,494,798

24h volume

$8,248,609,115

24h change

-0.01%

AI Conviction - USDC

V1 deterministic - no AI model in the score

34/100

BearishMedium confidenceData coverage: 7/11 components (69% of weight)

Top reasons

Across 633 whale events (20 wallets), observed buy pressure was $22.2M vs $816.4M sell - net distribution.
Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 4622 in the last 7 days vs 14485 the week before.
Global (not token-specific): 28 economy/regulatory items in 72h averaged -0.62 on the lexicon.

Top risks

Counter-signal - 24h volume was $8,248,609,115 against a $72,510,494,798 market cap (11.38% turnover).
Counter-signal - Top 10 non-exchange holders held 27.1% of supply (−27 points).
Data coverage gaps (4 of 11 components unavailable) - missing data lowers confidence, it is never guessed.
Available signals disagreed strongly with each other - a split read, not a consensus.

What changed: Since 2026-07-27 20:44 UTC: score rose 27 → 34; new data: Token fundamentals, Liquidity.

Historical context: Across 5 snapshots since 2026-07-25, the score ranged 27-50 (average 42); the current 34 is below that average.

Source freshness - Whale activity: 2026-07-29 03:48 UTC · On-chain activity: 2026-07-29 02:40 UTC · Macro conditions: 2026-07-28 23:47 UTC · Technical indicators: 2026-07-28 12:01 UTC

Components & methodology

Component	Weight	Observed
Whale activity	29.4%	Across 633 whale events (20 wallets), observed buy pressure was $22.2M vs $816.4M sell - net distribution.
- Smart money flows	-	Only 0 scored wallets were active in the consensus window (minimum 3).
On-chain activity	14.7%	Observed transactions fell week-over-week: 4622 in the last 7 days vs 14485 the week before.
Token fundamentals	8.8%	Top 10 non-exchange holders held 27.1% of supply (−27 points).
Liquidity	10.3%	24h volume was $8,248,609,115 against a $72,510,494,798 market cap (11.38% turnover).
Technical indicators	22.1%	Price moved -0.0% over 7 days and -0.0% over 30 days, sitting at 45% of its 30-day range.
News sentiment	8.8%	2 news items mentioning USDC in 72h scored positive on the lexicon (0.00).
Social sentiment

AI-generated analyses are automated interpretations of public market data. They may contain errors, are provided for educational purposes only, and are not investment recommendations. The information on this page is market data and educational analysis, not financial advice. Past on-chain activity does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

Smart Money Intelligence

Observed positioning of scored wallets over 30 days — computed from real whale events, rule-based, never a prediction.

12/100

distribution

50 baseline − 38 flow imbalance (net distribution 95% of $838.6M) − 0 breadth (0 scored wallets). Measures observed positioning, not investment quality.

Accumulation side · $22.2M

smart-money accumulation $0K
whale accumulation $22.2M
exchange outflows $0K
buy swaps $0K

Distribution side · $816.4M

whale distribution $816.4M
exchange inflows $0K
sell swaps $0K

Smart money consensus (7d · 0 scored wallets)

Insufficient scored-wallet data — no scored wallet was active on this asset in the last 7 days, so no consensus can be claimed.

Scenario weights — derived from current observed signals, not forecasts

Accumulation continues · 11%

market regime currently risk-on

Consolidation · 45%

balanced observed flows
no dominant pressure side

Distribution pressure · 44%

Holder analytics

Top 10 (non-exchange)

27.1%

Exchange custody

0.0%

Tracked smart wallets

0.0%

0x3730…73418.60%
0xe194…29b63.38%
0xffa6…5a5e3.15%
0xad35…9ef52.78%
0x40ec…bbdf2.09%

Exchange custody wallets hold aggregated customer funds and are not treated as investment ownership.

Risk analysis — what created these scores

Holder distribution73/100

· Based on the 50 largest holders on record.
· Top 10 non-exchange holders held 27.1% of supply (−27 points).

Liquidity94/100

· 24h volume was $8,248,609,115 against a $72,510,494,798 market cap (11.38% turnover).

Scores describe observed market structure only — they are not predictions, ratings of future performance, or financial advice.

AI research report

✓ Source data · 1 day old · newest datum 2026-07-27 19:49 UTC

✓ Written 2026-07-27 20:44 UTC · model claude-sonnet-5

✓ Platform report — generated for everyone, free to read

Summary

The deterministic engine scored USDC on Ethereum 27/100, direction BEARISH, confidence MEDIUM. This is a computed output, not an analytical judgment. The dossier behind it showed heavy net distribution across a small set of tracked wallets, a week-over-week decline in on-chain transaction count, and a price series that recorded no movement over 7, 30 or 90 days — consistent with a dollar-pegged stablecoin rather than a signal of directional conviction. Coverage was thin: only 56.0% of the applicable weight had data, and six of eleven components carried no reading at all.

Data and provenance

Of the eleven scoring components, five carried data: whale activity, on-chain activity, technical indicators, news sentiment, and macro conditions. Six were empty: smart-money flows (0 scored wallets, below the minimum of 3), token fundamentals (holder distribution unavailable for this chain), liquidity (volume/market cap unavailable), social sentiment (0 scored items, below minimum of 3), institutional activity (not tracked for crypto in V1), and ETF flows (not tracked for crypto in V1). Holder structure was explicitly unavailable, and the structure score was not computable. No token unlocks were found in tracked emissions data, and no disclosed institutional exposure appeared in tracked 13F/N-PORT filings — stated as an absence in the tracked data, not evidence of no institutional presence. Scored news included Decrypt — Circle Buys IBM Blockchain Patent Estate—And Becomes America's Biggest Holder (2026-07-27 15:35Z) and Cointelegraph — OKX Europe lets users convert USDT to MiCA-compliant USDC

Whale activity (10 recent · 26285 observed transfers)

LARGE TRANSFER — Wallet sent $8.0M in USDC. 0xbbbb…ffcb
LARGE TRANSFER — Wallet sent $89.8M in USDC. 0xbbbb…ffcb
LARGE TRANSFER — Wallet received $670K in USDC. 0x9be5…7516
DISTRIBUTION — Net outflow of $1.4M in USDC over the last 7 days (distribution pattern observed). 0x2906…715a
LARGE TRANSFER — Wallet received $6.1M in USDC across 2 similar transfers (~$3.1M each). 0xbdfa…026a
LARGE TRANSFER — Wallet received $100.9M in USDC across 2 transfers (same-transaction pass-through; net movement $0). 0x547b…fc3d
LARGE TRANSFER — Wallet sent $100.9M in USDC across 2 transfers (same-transaction pass-through; net movement $0). 0x547b…fc3d
LARGE TRANSFER — Wallet received $25.3M in USDC across 2 similar transfers (~$12.7M each). 0xb4e1…c9dc
LARGE TRANSFER — Wallet received $100.3M in USDC across 2 transfers (same-transaction pass-through; net movement $0). 0x547b…fc3d

Deterministic weighted aggregation (engine v1-deterministic-2026-07). Each component is an observed measurement mapped to [-1, +1]; weights are renormalized over components that actually had data (missing data contributes nothing and is never estimated); sentiment sources (news/social/macro) are capped at 20% of the total signal; score = 50 + 45 x weighted mean, bounded to 2-98 so the scale can never express certainty. Confidence is computed separately from data coverage (69% of applicable weight had data) and data quality - a high score with thin data stays low-confidence. No AI model participates in this score.

whale distribution observed ($816.4M/30d)

Professional lenses (5) — rule-based analysis from the data above

Institutional Fund confidence LOW
What would a hedge fund analyst likely examine here?
A fund analyst would typically flag the net distribution and examine venue inflows as potential supply overhang.
Data: observed 30d flows: $22.2M accumulation-side vs $816.4M distribution-side · 0 scored wallets active in 7d
On-chain flows describe PAST positioning of a small observed universe; they do not determine prices. Data can be incomplete or delayed.
Whale Investor confidence LOW
What would a large holder likely watch?
A large holder would typically watch the exchange inflows as a sign that peers are staging liquidity venue-side.
Data: exchange outflows $0K vs inflows $0K (30d)
On-chain flows describe PAST positioning of a small observed universe; they do not determine prices. Data can be incomplete or delayed.
Swing Trader confidence LOW
What would a technical trader likely track?
A swing trader would typically track whether the current distribution side persists across sessions, using the flow imbalance as context rather than a signal by itself.
Data: observed 30d flows: $22.2M accumulation-side vs $816.4M distribution-side
On-chain flows describe PAST positioning of a small observed universe; they do not determine prices. Data can be incomplete or delayed.
Risk Manager confidence LOW
How would a professional frame the risk?
A risk manager would typically size any exposure against the observed concentration: flows driven by few wallets reverse faster than broad-based moves, and venue-side supply adds liquidity risk.
Data: 0 scored wallets in the 7d sample · venue-side supply $0K (30d inflows)
On-chain flows describe PAST positioning of a small observed universe; they do not determine prices. Data can be incomplete or delayed.
Long-Term Investor confidence LOW
What would a long-horizon allocator likely note?
A long-horizon allocator would typically treat current flows as noise at their horizon and focus on fundamentals this dashboard does not measure.
Data: Insufficient scored-wallet data — no scored wallet was active on this asset in the last 7 days, so no consensus can be claimed.
On-chain flows describe PAST positioning of a small observed universe; they do not determine prices. Data can be incomplete or delayed.

Educational description of observed on-chain positioning (633 events · 20 wallets). Not financial advice, not a prediction, and never a buy or sell recommendation.

(2026-07-17 16:54Z), among five citable items overall. Price momentum data showed 365 daily closes with 0.0% change across all measured windows.

Whale activity (36.4% weight) contributed -0.3, the largest driver: across 602 whale events among 20 wallets, observed buy pressure was $22.2M against $739.7M in sell-side flow. On-chain activity (18.2% weight) contributed -0.1, with transactions falling from 11,809 the prior week to 6,962 in the last 7 days. Confidence is most limited by the coverage gap itself — 44% of applicable weight had no data, including holder structure and liquidity, both directly relevant to judging concentration or exit capacity.

The flow record shows address 0x5aae4d2f360e156de3416936049837a7bb685588 receiving $4,072,314 (19:49Z), $3,944,706 (19:49Z), $8,798,406 across two transfers (17:23Z), and $5,153,752 (17:11Z), all on 2026-07-27 — accumulation into one wallet. Separately, address 0x547b5ad9f71ac50efd8755bc144767ac1768fc3d moved $96.8M in a same-transaction pass-through (net $0, 06:44Z) and showed a net outflow of $70.3M over 7 days, a distribution pattern rather than a directional holding change. Address 0x9be5b8a7314552fa47feb1355cd5b4adc7bb7516 sent and received the identical $533,661 within minutes (12:55Z/12:59Z), consistent with transit rather than accumulation. Smart-money positioning scored 12/100 (DISTRIBUTION), but the underlying sample was only 0 scored wallets in the consensus window — the platform data states this consensus is not claimable and the sample is too thin to describe agreement.

Per the measured-disagreements check, no conflicts were found: the flat price series, the distribution-heavy whale flows, and the declining transaction count all pointed the same direction or sat inside a flat band.

Holder distribution data was unavailable for this chain, so concentration among top holders could not be assessed. Liquidity data (volume, market cap) was unavailable, making it impossible to judge exit capacity for the $739.7M in observed sell-side flow. The whale sample was concentrated in 20 wallets — a narrow base relative to the dollar amounts moved. A prior security incident was reported in CoinDesk — Arbitrum-based AFX Trade drained of $24 million after bridge keys compromised (2026-07-23), unrelated to this token directly but part of the tracked news environment.

What would change this read

Observable measurements to watch: whether buy-side flow among tracked whale wallets narrows the $22.2M-versus-$739.7M gap; whether weekly transaction counts recover toward the prior week's 11,809; and whether holder-distribution or liquidity data become available for this chain, which would let currently-empty components carry weight in the next snapshot.

Limitations and missing data

This report could not establish holder concentration, market cap, trading volume, smart-money consensus (0 qualifying wallets), social sentiment (0 qualifying items), institutional exposure, or ETF flows for this asset. Price momentum data showed a flat series with no volatility to characterize. All figures were drawn solely from the dossier provided; no external price or listing data was assumed.

This analysis is educational information, not financial advice.

AI-generated analyses are automated interpretations of public market data. They may contain errors, are provided for educational purposes only, and are not investment recommendations.

Deep research

Four passes instead of one: it plans what this dossier can and cannot answer, drafts the report, attacks its own draft for unsupported claims and generic sentences, then rewrites. It ends by stating what it could not determine and which datum was missing.

LARGE TRANSFER — Wallet sent $100.3M in USDC across 2 transfers (same-transaction pass-through; net movement $0). 0x547b…fc3d

USDC

AI Conviction - USDC

Top reasons

Top risks

Smart Money Intelligence

Holder analytics

Risk analysis — what created these scores

AI research report

Summary

Data and provenance

Whale activity (10 recent · 26285 observed transfers)

On-chain analysis

Risks

What would change this read

Limitations and missing data

Deep research

Deep research